Or Maybe McCain's Election Is Not Assured After All....

Chris Matthews is actually making a pretty solid point. And one that's going to be difficult one for McCain to deal with. That is, the states McCain is winning are ones Republican seldom win in general elections. So far our tally has Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. Basically he's taking the Democratic base.

Link.

But he'll always have Big Media at his back....

An analysis of the straight-talking (not!) maverick (not!):

"Senator McCain has proven that he will say anything to win this election," Romney told reporters. "He has taken on a very aggressive, bold strategy of misrepresentation, and it works in politics to a degree." Romney then listed several issues on which, he says, McCain has flip-flopped, including the Bush tax cuts: McCain once opposed them but has more recently voiced his support for the policy. It was a departure for Romney, who just a couple of days ago would have likely declined to be drawn into a tit-for-tat about an opponent's strategy.

A more lucid analysis:

Josh, people are scratching their heads about Limbaugh preferring to lose in November than win with McCain. And even if he comes around publicly (as I suspect he will eventually), privately he and guys like Richard Viguerie understand that over the long term the real battle is about the "post-mortem." Winning the post-mortem is the key to their continued power going forward past 2008. Think about it: if McCain wins then there will be a real sense that these former power bastions such as talk radio are becoming less relevant to a new wired citizenry, etc. For Rush and Viguerie and Land and the Family Research Council, this is big business and they don't want to give up even some of their power, perceived or otherwise. On the other hand, if the primary voters choose McCain (with the aid of the hated lib media) and McCain goes on to lose in November, then they can argue that they were right all along - this outcome allows them to win the post-mortem against voices such as David Brooks and Ryan Sager who seek to break the mold once and for all. This is high stakes for all of these people. I'm not surprised by Rush on this at all.

I'm not sure I agree with every jot and tittle here. But he's quite right about the stakes. If McCain can win with Rush and Coulter and the rest of them openly and volubly against them, it will mean that they're paper tigers. And their juice in GOP circles will be greatly diminished. Not that people won't still listen to Rush's show and he won't make money selling racist songs on his subscription only website, but GOP pols will feel much freer to ignore him. The fact that he's on track to win the nomination is bad enough. They can only recover if he loses the general. Then they'll argue that it was because he bucked the Movement conservatives.

Meanwhile, there's another angle to this -- one that David Keene of CPAC was refreshingly candid about in the article about conservatives and McCain in the Times about why a lot of the insider activists are sidling up to McCain so rapidly...

Meanwhile, conservatives are growing increasingly “resigned” to the idea of a McCain nomination, said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, adding that among Washington activists, many of whom, like him, double as lobbyists, self-interest may also be a factor.

“There are people who don’t like the idea of a being off a campaign or being on the bad list if the guy gets into the White House,” Mr. Keene said. “This is a town in which 90 percent of the people balance their access and income on the one hand versus their principles on the other.”

Like I said, refreshing candor. And I don't mean that facetiously. But Keene's right. A lot of these DC conservative power-brokers make their very substantial livings as lobbyists. And trying to sink McCain does not pay.

Another problem driving the wingnuts loco: He maybe not be electable on legal grounds because he wasn't born in America (which would be a problem if we were a nation under the rule of law).

But he is a stand-up guy.