Message From Our Ally, Russia?

A border conflict in the Balkans, yet again, is inflaming nationalist passions and dividing the world's major powers.

In a scene reminiscent of past flareups, Serbian anger over the province of Kosovo's declaration of independence spilled into violence in Belgrade, the Serbian capital. The protests, in which a mob ransacked parts of the U.S. embassy, illustrate the perils of the U.S.-led bid to redraw the borders of one of Europe's most unsettled corners.

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Associated Press
More than 150,000 Serbs rallied against Kosovo's declaration of independence. Masked rioters set fire to the U.S. embassy.
American and European diplomats said they were alarmed by the violence and worried that the Serbian government might stoke ethnic passions in Kosovo. Yet Western officials also said there was still good reason to believe the unrest won't spark another spasm of armed conflict.

An estimated 150,000 Serbs waving their nation's flag and shouting "Kosovo is ours" clashed with police in Belgrade, part of massive protests against Kosovo's Sunday secession. Several hundred then marched on the U.S. embassy, briefly setting fire to several rooms and tearing down a flag.

After the brutal wars of the 1990s that led to the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, diplomats weren't surprised at the angry popular response. Most Serbs consider Kosovo their historic heartland, and it's home to revered sites of the Serbian Orthodox Church. The question is whether the violence increases in ways that could either jeopardize the existing and wobbly Serbian government or spill over into parts of Kosovo.

Most analysts thought that unlikely. Much has changed since the bloodshed of the 1990s, including a more moderate Serbian government and the presence of thousands of North Atlantic Treaty Organization peacekeeping troops in Kosovo.

"For the moment this is basically blowing off steam," said James Dobbins, a former U.S. envoy to Kosovo. "The real alarm point would be any sign of large Serbian paramilitary infiltrations into Kosovo, which I think are unlikely."

Yet the attacks underscored the risks of trying to change borders in the Balkans. Kosovo's secession has pitted the U.S. against Russia, adding fuel to anti-Western rhetoric in Moscow just days before Russia's presidential election. Moscow opposes Kosovo's independence, in part because of fears over separatist movements within Russia. Moscow strongly supports Serbia, a traditional ally.

Kosovo's independence bid also has split the European Union. Seventeen of its 27 member countries have recognized Kosovo's independence. Others, including Cyprus, Slovakia, Romania and Spain, called it illegal.


The protesters in Belgrade also attacked the Croatian, Turkish and Belgian embassies -- targets freighted with Balkan history. Croatia is a neighbor and historic foe. Turkey supports Kosovo's mainly Muslim ethnic Albanian majority, and the Turkish-based Ottoman empire occupied Serbia for centuries. Belgium is the seat of the EU, which is sending a law-and-order mission of roughly 2,000 to Kosovo.

Bush administration officials registered strong protests with Serbia over the embassy ransacking but said Serbia had responded by sealing off the building. The U.S. said it plans to seek a United Nations statement condemning the assault.

The Western architects of Kosovo's independence bid say there are many reasons to believe that Serbian anger can be contained, avoiding any renewal of the ethnic cleansing that marked the wars in Bosnia and Croatia.

Serb President Boris Tadic was re-elected last month against a nationalist opponent, on a promise to keep his country on a path to membership in the EU. In recent days he has repeated that pledge, and committed to resolving Serbia's claim to Kosovo peacefully.

Richard Holbrooke, a U.S. ambassador to the U.N. in the Clinton administration, said that if there is violence in the northern areas of Kosovo where ethnic Serbs are a majority, NATO should "take firm action. I hope NATO sends more troops now [rather than] wait until it is too late." However, others cautioned against taking steps that might provoke either the Serbian government or radical elements in the Serbian community. Ivo Daalder, a former Clinton White House official who worked on Balkan issues, said, "To add troops now could amount to throwing fuel to the fire."

Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders have strived to keep tempers calm. Kosovo's state television played down images of Serbs burning border posts, apparently trying not to risk violence that would damage the bid for international recognition. The first attacks on border posts came Tuesday. Yesterday, some 300 former army reservists again attacked a Kosovo border post, throwing stones at Kosovar police and NATO troops.

Real trouble, said some analysts and diplomats, would be likely only if there was a backlash against exposed Serbian enclaves in the south of Kosovo. And worst of all would be any ethnic Albanian attempt to take over authorities in Mitrovica, an ethnically divided town in northern Kosovo. That could prompt a military response from Belgrade.

Within the Serbian government, Mr. Tadic is opposed by a nationalist and pro-Russian prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica. Anger in Serbia could boil over on the familiar issue of protecting Serbs who live in a breakaway neighboring state.

Kosovo's population of two million is more than 90% ethnic Albanian. About half of the remaining 10% are ethnic Serbs. Many are concentrated in northern Kosovo, bordering Serbia, which is where most clashes with international peacekeepers have taken place.

"Throughout the negotiations for a final status in Kosovo, everybody knew it would be partitioned, but because nobody had the guts to say it, we are watching it happen on the ground now," said Misha Glenny, a veteran observer of the region and author of a history of the Balkans.

Serbia effectively lost Kosovo in 1999, when Serb forces retreated in the face of a NATO bombing campaign after former Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic's failed attempt to purge the territory of ethnic Albanians. The territory has been under international administration since, though still as a province of Serbia. The Serb-dominated area north of Mitrovica has been run from Belgrade since 1999, with schools and other services provided by Serbian authorities.

Kosovo's leaders have made clear they won't accept a formal partition of their new country. President Fatmir Sejdiu said Thursday he was counting on NATO to secure Kosovo's borders, the Associated Press reported. Yet Kosovo's leaders have long since accepted that a temporary, de facto partition is all but inevitable, according to Alexander Anderson, the Pristina-based Kosovo Project Director for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels think tank.

"The Albanians have already discounted rebellious behavior in the North and have internalized that Kosovo institutions in the north probably won't survive," said Mr. Anderson.

Serbia's pro-Western economy minister, Mladjan Dinkic, visited Mitrovica on Wednesday, where he said Serbia wouldn't tolerate customs posts on the border. "I think we must do all we can to establish economic sovereignty in those parts of Kosovo...where Serbs live," he said, Serbia's Beta news agency reported.

Kosovo's ethnic Albanians also have militant elements difficult to control. In that context, any violent reaction could quickly spin out of control, according to Mr. Anderson. Kosovo's leaders "are prepared to accept a lot, but not de jure separation" for the Mitrovica area. He added that the situation puts enormous responsibility on NATO and EU forces to stay in Serbian areas, protect pockets of ethnic Albanians and keep up a formal separation from Belgrade.

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